Iran Conflict: Armenia and Azerbaijan Navigate Regional Tensions

Iran Conflict: Armenia and Azerbaijan Navigate Neighbourly Tensions

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region for decades, with over 30,000 people killed in the latest conflict in 2020. That number is a stark reminder that the status quo is precarious, and the situation is about to get even more complicated. The Iran conflict has set off alarm bells in the South Caucasus, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan trying to stay above the fray while juggling their relations with external powers like Turkey and Russia. Here's the key takeaway: the Iran conflict is likely to have a significant impact on regional politics in the South Caucasus, and Armenia and Azerbaijan will need to do some careful diplomatic juggling to avoid getting pulled in.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Deep-Seated Dispute

The Nagorno-Karabakh region has been a thorn in the side of international diplomacy for decades. The region is majority Armenian, but it's internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. The dispute has led to several conflicts, including the 1991-1994 war that killed an estimated 20,000 people. The region remains a frozen conflict, with Armenian and Azerbaijani forces maintaining a fragile ceasefire. The situation is further complicated by the presence of external powers, including Turkey and Russia, which have their own interests in the region.

• Turkey supports Azerbaijan, viewing the region as a crucial part of its own historical heritage. • Russia has a long-standing relationship with Armenia, dating back to the Soviet era. • The United States has also been involved in mediating the conflict, but its efforts have been largely unsuccessful.

Armenia's Foreign Policy: A Delicate Balance

Armenia's foreign policy is a delicate balancing act. The country needs to maintain its relationships with external powers like Russia while also navigating its own interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia's reliance on Russia for defense and energy supplies makes it vulnerable to pressure from Moscow, but the country also needs to maintain its independence in the face of increasing Turkish and Azerbaijani nationalism. Armenia's foreign policy has been focused on maintaining a stable relationship with Russia while also seeking to diversify its economy.

• Armenia has been seeking to improve its relations with the European Union, signing a free trade agreement in 2018. • The country has also been working to diversify its energy supplies, seeking to reduce its reliance on Russian oil.

Azerbaijan's Economy: A Growing Presence

Azerbaijan's economy has been growing rapidly in recent years, driven by its large oil reserves. The country's GDP has grown from $10 billion in 2003 to over $70 billion in 2020, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Azerbaijan's oil wealth has given it a significant advantage in the region, allowing it to build a robust military and invest in its infrastructure. However, the country's economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, and its relations with its neighbors remain tense.

• Azerbaijan's oil reserves are estimated to be around 7 billion barrels, making it one of the largest oil-producing countries in the world. • The country has been investing heavily in its infrastructure, including a new airport and a high-speed rail link.

The Real Problem: External Interference

The real problem in the South Caucasus is not Armenia and Azerbaijan's dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, but rather the external interference that has been driving the conflict. Turkey's support for Azerbaijan has been a major factor in the escalation of the conflict, while Russia's efforts to maintain its relationship with Armenia have only added to the tension. The involvement of external powers has made it difficult for Armenia and Azerbaijan to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.

• The Iran conflict has further complicated the situation, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan seeking to maintain their relationships with Iran while also navigating their own interests in the region. • The situation is highly volatile and could escalate into a larger conflict at any moment.

The Way Forward: Diplomatic Juggling

Armenia and Azerbaijan will need to do some careful diplomatic juggling to avoid getting pulled in by the Iran conflict. The two countries need to maintain their relationships with external powers like Russia and Turkey while also navigating their own interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. A possible way forward is for Armenia and Azerbaijan to engage in direct talks with each other, facilitated by a neutral third party like the European Union. This could help to reduce tensions and create a framework for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

• A negotiated peace would require concessions from both sides, including the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. • The international community needs to provide support for any peace process, including economic and diplomatic incentives for both sides.

By engaging in diplomatic efforts and seeking a negotiated peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan may be able to avoid a larger conflict and find a way forward in the South Caucasus. The situation is precarious, but with careful juggling and a willingness to compromise, it may be possible to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.